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Thread: General > Talk > Dan Asks: Future of computing.

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Thread: #7217
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dan Site Admin

Posted: 16 May 2012
Dan Asks: Future of computing.
Arm processors are creeping up on us in all sorts of devices and are most likely about to hit the desktop. We can see that the way we are using computers is changing. It is getting ever more evident that people are really getting into there mobile devices. It would appear that since we can not longer squeeze any more processing power our of a chip with the current transistor sizes that can be made, attention has turned to improving power consumption driven by the need for smaller portable devices.


What do you thinks next? what will people be doing with their devices. I personally can see us buying desktops with 16 or more ARM cores in the next few years because they run cooler and are energy efficient.

What do you think is the future of computing?
Radiofred

Posted: 16 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
In terms of technology, I always think Cameras give an interesting insight.

Cameras were basic and pricey, they got better, they got cheaper. People started using them more, and they became more public/consumer friendly, units like the olympus trip et al. They went digital, better quality. And then we saw this interesting movement towards vintage styles, instagram and stuff, lomography cameras and fish eye lenses. Heck, Leica even make a digital camera that only does black and white.

I think our computers will get more powerful and smaller, and eventually tablets and phones and desktops will all converge into one unit.

And then people will start to miss their different bits of kit, and the gadget world will separate again, with phones that JUST phone, oh the novelty.

That's my view. Our tech will converge into one, and then will slowly split back out again.
PawClaw

Posted: 16 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
I can't see tech coverging too much because it still all has it uses and limitations.

Eg a tablet and a phone won't merge because a good tablet size is too big for a phone and a good phone size is to small for a tablet.
Laptops and Tablets won't merge because whilst tablets are doing greater for like events with check lists and stuff the typing power of physical keyboard for on the go workers is greater.
Music devices and phones won't merge because other than the iphone kids most people still use an mp3 player for the sound quality even though their phone can do music.
Same goes for camera tech, whilst phones CAN do it as an on-the go option people still like a proper camera for doing photos.
Devices can certainly multi-task but each devices hardware and specifications foreground certain tasks; so I don't think they will ever all merge.

As for progress I could see 16 and 32 core systems in the near future, growth of ssd over hdd probably see a phasing out of VGA etc for hdmi (which could cause more stream-lined desktop systems) via basic 2 point sound being fed through the monitor.

Battery tech is certainly a big frontier in terms of what gadjets do next, it is behind by like a decade or 2 really.
dan Site Admin

Posted: 16 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
I think convergence is inevitable. The futures mobiles will be able to take far better pictures than todays top of the line SLR. I don't think people continuing to buy separates for quality will necessarily be the case.

I think those mass amounts of cores will most certainly not x86/64 chips. The will be 64-bit ARM
KandyKitty

Posted: 16 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
The model I can see approaching is that people may have a central computer at home- probably linked into multiple media such as television, radio, ect that acts as a central node for their portable devices such as phones and tablets. This given that its perfectly feasible for us to have wireless access to all these devices and is easily do able but at the end of the day personal memory space as well as programs that require more processing than a mobile device has will always exist as long as we keep developing software technology
PawClaw

Posted: 16 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
I think some convergence is inevitable but I don't think it is imminent. Hardware wise even the youth generations are too used to certain hardware forms for certain tasks. and I don;t think it will be universal, sure tech is advancing but I don;t think we will ever reach a point (within our life times anyway) where a compact phone camera can match the quality gotten from a proper DSLR when using zoom lenses and macro lenses for example, the fact such lens types are still segregated is because they need different internals to a 'normal' lens if you wanna achieve the best possible.

@KandyKitty we already kind of have that with the whole cloud computing thing. Eg my contacts and calendars are stored on google and synchronise to my phone and computers. Itunes purchases can be cloud stored and will download to all devices automatically etc.
KandyKitty

Posted: 16 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
Precisely my point @PawClaw :)
PawClaw

Posted: 16 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
I was more getting at the fact it's not a model that is 'approaching' it is very much here and now.
KandyKitty

Posted: 16 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
Here and now for some but hardly ubiquitous and laptops are currently more the norm
LondonBoy

Posted: 17 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
I saw an amazing thing on the news last night about a woman who's been completely paralysed and unable to speak or move for years. They put a chip in her brain and she was able to remotely control a robot arm just by thinking bout it! That is fucking awesome!

I think we're seriously only one generation away from consumer cybernetics. Things like a chip in your head that stores your music, allows you to connect to the cloud, contact lenses with a heads-up display. Within the next 50 years people will voluntarily be upgrading their own bodies for superior robotic limbs, eyes, who knows what.

And then.... Skynet.
peteUK

Posted: 17 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
I am very interested in the substitutes for silicon that are being researched, quantum computing and 3-dimentional tri-sistors. Also the stunning performance demonstrated by GPU units. Couple with power efficient units, the best is yet to come!
edwardk81

Posted: 17 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
I think Necronet will be the next logical step!


KandyKitty

Posted: 18 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
Sounds like someone's up for transhumanism @LondonBoy
glenn

Posted: 19 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
I think (as a lot of people say) there'll be some convergence, with a cloud-type structure linking things to a central computer(s). Within the next 50 years this computer will almost certainly become a quantum computer. I almost got into quantum computing for my final year physics project, but went in the rather different direction of neutrinos
tomeedubya

Posted: 19 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
3D gate technology and layering buys them time in terms of transistor count on chip. Computing will continue to diversify, I certainly don't see any "convergence" happening. Cloud services will just continue to be mostly for data exchange rather than large storage. Hard drive prices will drop in the coming year or two as well.
Abstract

Posted: 20 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
Quantum computing is the future, but how far off it is would be the question...
edwardk81

Posted: 20 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
I'm guessing Quantum computing could be quite a leap away....
technoprimitiv

Posted: 23 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
Future of computing... Apple sticking ventilation into their Macbooks would be GREAT.
Chaoss

Posted: 23 May 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
I've been using computers since 1997 pretty much obsessively, I've had the internet since I've had a computer and I remember being one of the first to 'shotgun' 2 dialup modems.

I've seen trends come and go, various predictions come true and fail. Most of my predictions have came true albeit a bit later than I had hoped.

For the near (upto 2019) computers will continue to advance, new technologies such as '3d' chips and multiple cores will continue to grow, there will be another jump in processor speed (upto 5 - 6.2ghz). Display technology is where we will see the biggest change. I believe we will start to see AMOLED displays and 4k resolution (QFHD) and 8k (UHD) enter the market, Resolution independence will become standard, with OS's instead replacing the 'classic' resolution chooser with "small", "standard", "large" settings or dpi settings.

3D glasses-free tech will be standard in most or all displays towards the end of the decade, most billboards, ad-board displays in subways etc will be super high resolution and 3D. During this time virtual reality will start to make a comeback as computing power is able to recreate near photo-realistic graphics.

Software itself will change quite a bit, especially software that is used to design 3d virtual environments (3ds max, maya etc) and will start to become intelligent, So if you want a stone wall you create a basic wall, apply a stone material and instead of having to switch over to photoshop and create the texture from photographs or drawn imagery you will be able to configure lots of settings in the 3d application to get the appearance you want, to create a tree instead of having to poly model it you will be able to create it from a vegetation creator type interface. Creating things will become a lot easier for everyone (hence the resurgence in virtual reality!).

Gaming will be quite difference near the end of the decade, voices in games will be dynamically created on the fly enabling characters in games to react to all kinds of different situations, speak your name, reply to your dialog, AI will be a lot more human like.

Gadgets in general will merge, your phone will also be your camera, mp3 player, personal computer, tv, etc. You will still have your screen at your desk, keyboard, mouse, webcam etc as you do today, but the tower will dissipear. All your settings, personal things, music collections, movies, games and other stuff will be stored in the cloud so if you loose your personal device you don't loose everything. This device can connect wirelessly to all your screens and input devices at home. This may take longer and not happen until after 2020 though.

I think things like Windows, Mac, XBOX, PS3 will be ancient tech, platforms will all be merges, no longer will you see the dreaded 'AWESOME GAME WITH AWESOME STORY, CHARACTERS, ACTION for your PS3 & Xbox 360" and rage because you only have a PC (that drives me fucking nuts, especially ps3 or XBOX exclusives, what about those who only have an XBOX?). You will simply get 'games' that can be played anywhere on anything.

There will be quite a large vintage tech movement towards older tech. some people will choose to sport old style phones and computers, major tech companies will see this and create 'new' old style gadgets that act, feel and run the same as old hardware but are more power efficient and a lot more secure against viruses, hackers etc.

Getting there will not be easy though, I think the move towards mobile will go just a bit to far and people will get fed up with staring at a 3" display to watch movies and play games. 'PC's' will always have a place in the home and the workplace.
OpaOpa

Posted: 20 Jul 2012
Re: Dan Asks: Future of computing.
Moving away from disk storage to portable storage is the biggest thing atm.

"I think things like Windows, Mac, XBOX, PS3 will be ancient tech, platforms will all be merges, no longer will you see the dreaded 'AWESOME GAME WITH AWESOME STORY, CHARACTERS, ACTION for your PS3 & Xbox 360" and rage because you only have a PC (that drives me fucking nuts, especially ps3 or XBOX exclusives, what about those who only have an XBOX?). You will simply get 'games' that can be played anywhere on anything."

That's what make games fun, if you don't Japanese console games and some the quirks they bring such as system exclusive content then only play western games.
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